Why the bug I wrote became a core gameplay mechanic?!
Chapter 577 - 560: There’s Nothing Wrong with This Probability!

Chapter 577: Chapter 560: There’s Nothing Wrong with This Probability!

At first, I got 2 in 50 gacha draws.

Then, it started being 1 for every 60 and 70 draws.

And cases of skewing toward the Permanent Pool started occurring.

In the beginning, Instructor Ding could still comfort himself, saying it’s no big deal even if maxing out the small guaranteed at 70 draws - considering an average below 70 to be lucky.

However, as more and more draws were needed, situations even emerged where it took 90 draws to get gold!

Is this scientific?

Of course, not every time was this unlucky; there have also been cases later on of getting gold prematurally with just 40 or 50 draws, as the algorithm itself indeed ensured plenty of randomness.

But even so, Instructor Ding could clearly feel his luck running dry.

The number of draws needed to get gold kept increasing!

Logically speaking, it should be enough to get three stars for these two characters and then stop, as the two-star and three-star levels are the more cost-effective brackets.

But Instructor Ding is a livestreamer, he had already set his flag, insisting on full-starring these two characters - how could he go back on his word?

So he had no choice but to grit his teeth and continue!

"Damn it, maxed out the guaranteed again.

"Eighty draws, it should be coming now, it really should!

"Ninety draws and still no gold?!

"No way, man! Is this right?!

"This can’t be right, where’s the guaranteed rate? Why isn’t it there??"

Instructor Ding was completely heated up; he’d done everything possible, including washing his face or changing locations in the game - not missing a single superstitious trick.

But to no avail, he was getting more and more unlucky!

The thing is, getting gold only after ninety draws seriously broke his psychological bottom line.

Games like this usually have some sort of small guaranteed, typically around 70 draws, and even in extremely unlucky cases, maybe 80, but definitely no more.

With 80 draws, the probability of getting the item should be pushed to 100%, and if it still doesn’t appear, then it is a bug in the game.

Yet, "Endless Fantasy Legend 2" could actually have cases of getting gold only after ninety draws.

Why the hell is this?

Instructor Ding was utterly baffled; he opened the gacha explanation page and read through it many times in detail.

And finally, he found something between the lines.

"There’s a base gacha probability and an aggregate gacha probability.

"Lower than other games, but overall, still within an acceptable range, something he already knew from the start.

"But what’s with this needing ninety or a hundred draws to get gold?

"Hmm? Wait a second.

"Nowhere in these rules does it mention an increase in gacha probability or a guaranteed rate at eighty draws?"

Instructor Ding was flabbergasted, momentarily unable to wrap his head around it.

In this case, the official rules weren’t so strict.

Other gacha games normally guarantee gold after eighty or ninety draws, with two common approaches:

One is to start increasing the chance of getting the item with every draw from the fiftieth or sixtieth, so that by eighty draws, the rate increases to 100%, ensuring an item.

The other is to directly raise the rate to 100% at eighty draws.

The second approach is a bit too simple and brutal, not providing enough of a "random feel" for the players, so the first method is more common in the industry.

At that point, game publishers typically claim: guaranteed gold at eighty or ninety draws.

But the specifics, how much each rate increases with each draw, those are not specified; there’s no official requirement to disclose them.

In fact, the officials only require the disclosure of "base draw probability" and "aggregate draw probability"; they don’t intervene too much with the rest.

Some games, extremely stingy, even adopt true probabilities, where it’s not uncommon to see over a hundred draws without gold despite an aggregate probability of 1.5%.

Games like that are becoming rare on the market, as they’ve received too much backlash from players.

"Could it be that Nitiandang’s gacha operates on true probabilities?

"But that can’t be right, if it’s truly random, why did I get two with fifty draws at the start?

"...Perhaps even low-probability events can happen?

"Ah, this is so frustrating! Just continue to spend, I guess."

Instructor Ding felt like he was on the verge of a breakdown, but dwelling on these thoughts was pointless now.

Some might think of unpacking the data, but in these types of games, the algorithms and data are typically stored on the server side.

If stored on the client side, some tech gurus might crack it, tweak it slightly, and it would become a hacked version; that would be a disaster.

There’s no way to crack server-side data. On one hand, the protection is quite strict; on the other, actually doing so could land you in jail in no time, caught red-handed.

The online game run by Nitiandang was designed with all front-end and back-end data prepared from the start, without alteration; it’s not just the front-end.

So, for Instructor Ding to fulfill his promise, he just had to bite the bullet and keep drawing.

Approximately 420 draws in, he finally maxed out Glacier General.

Then after 530 draws, little Xing Ying was still one shy of full stars!

And this was even when the skew wasn’t particularly severe.

Instructor Ding almost spat blood, looking at this Four Stars Xing Ying, it’s true sorrow springing from within.

How is there a reason to half-marry?

"Dammit, charge another ten 648s!

"I really refuse to believe this, I want to see just how unlucky I can get today!"

Instructor Ding lost his cool, but the bullet screen comments were having a ball.

"Dying laughing, it’s like an anti-fraud campaign video!"

"Did you expect this? At first, Nitiandang lured you in on purpose, you fell for it by topping up!"

"Nice, I’m taking my one-star Glacier General and quitting, decisively stopping here. Whoever loves gacha, let them pull; it’s all a huge loss."

"Told you to pull while you’re lucky, but you didn’t listen, and instead went to test some minor character’s damage. Happy now?"

"Desperate to ’Brexit,’ I hope to see Little Ding’s gacha every day!"

"If another ten 648s don’t make it full stars, that would be quite the show."

"Impossible, if that were to happen, the odds wouldn’t match the system description, and the instructor would have to report it to the official platform."

Instructor Ding recharged with a ferocious momentum and clicked for another ten-pull.

However, the next second, a streak of gold light passed across the screen, followed by another.

"Holy shit!

"Holy shit!!"

Instructor Ding let out two consecutive roars, but the first was a roar of surprise and the second a roar of despair.

This is what’s called a double gold!

Usually, this would undoubtedly be a sign of extreme luck, but not now, because he was just one Xing Ying short of a full star team.

What to do if it’s full star after another pull?

The answer is nothing much, probably turning into an item that could be exchanged for a ten-pull.

So, Instructor Ding shouted nervously: "Come on, skew it! It’s gotta skew this time!

"Give me any random Permanent character, please!"

However, the silhouettes of two Xing Yings ruthlessly shattered his fantasy.

Instructor Ding slumped into his chair, momentarily at a loss for words.

The bullet screen exploded once more.

"666 an unexpected ending!"

"An O. Henry-style ending, I’m laughing so hard!"

"Okay, this puts a doubly perfect full stop on today’s gacha, the editing team can start preparing cuts now!"

"Little Ding, you’re truly born for this gig, full of showmanship through and through!"

"What’s this called, Brexiting then ’Afrixiting’, and then exiting Afric again? Just a minor hiccup in operation, with an extra one spilling out.

"Quickly test the damage of a six-star Xing Ying; it must be strong!"

After a long while, Instructor Ding finally sat up from his chair, looking lifelessly at his two full-star characters.

Great, wasted ten 648s.

The first ten-pull after topping up was a double gold, absolutely speechless.

"Let’s recap.

"Counting the initial gifted 50 pulls, it’s roughly about 1000 pulls total.

"1000 pulls, roughly... let me count, 15 or 16 golds.

"Damn! Is it really a combined gacha rate of 1.5%?

"Is that right?

"Why do I still feel like there’s something wrong?"

Instructor Ding scratched his head, feeling a bit of brain overload.

He pulled 6 Glacier Generals and 6 Xing Yings, and then skewed 4 Permanent Pool characters.

From the skewed results, it seemed pretty good.

After all, the official misalignment probability for the Permanent Pool was 40%, and his actual rate was 25%; that’s quite nice.

One 648 pack is roughly 80 pulls, and 1000 pulls equate to 12.5 packs of 648.

Each full-star UP character costs around just under 4000 bucks.

Instructor Ding’s face twisted: "...So calculating like this, is it actually normal? Or even cheaper compared to other games?

"In other games, following the expected odds, you might spend several thousand bucks for a full-star character.

"But why am I still so pissed off!!"

Statistically speaking, there’s no problem at all.

The pool description stated from the get-go a comprehensive rate of 1.5%, 1000 pulls, 15 golds, and doesn’t that match perfectly?

Even when it’s bad luck, the good luck happened when it was due: 50 pulls 2 golds in the beginning, a double gold in a ten-pull after, isn’t that luck?

Perfect start, perfect finish, isn’t it all good?

As for the process, don’t ask, if you do, it’s the process that doesn’t matter.

Instructor Ding was puzzled; from the data, everything looked normal, even in line with the Conservation of Luck, but why just couldn’t he be happy?