Chapter 43: Lunar Gamble

We had nineteen golden coins remaining, meaning I had the biggest number possible, something that most considered a good thing, I’m not saying it would be better if I had spent more, but that whenever you have a lot, you tend to give more.

But there’s no time to waste.

What is the possibility of a normal person choosing to deposit one coin? There are twenty coins, each of which represents a number. So what is the chance of one coin being chosen out of twenty? The chance is one in five hundredths, but considering there’s more than one person, the chance rises.

How many are there left? We started with two hundred and I counted at least twenty-two people that chose zero. Let’s say half chose heads, meaning there are one hundred eighty-nine contestants left.

Rounding it up, there is a ten percent chance of chance. But that is only mathematically correct. Taking into consideration human emotion, the chance decreases.

Zero is out of the question, or is it? I’m guessing most have forgotten the idea of testing if zero would even count as depositing, therefore making it safe. But then again the one who chose it last round was eliminated, but then again what if it was only because of the tiebreaker?

No, that’s not it, the tiebreaker is only when the lowest number is chosen by more than one, so zero is really out of the question, meaning I don’t need to redo my calculation.

Now back to emotions. With zero being an instant loss, people would be more inclined to choose one, but then again, that is also suicidal, since it’s the lowest number available after zero, which again, is an instant loss. So two?

Really if I continue to think like this I’m going to say ten or something is the best option.

My idea is flawed, I’m thinking of everyone here as one group, each choosing one option. But in reality, there are bound to be some who go for the prize or some who try to save their coins.

Take my reasoning so far, I eliminated one because zero was a guaranteed loss. Then, I eliminated two because it became the lowest possible number, meaning it was the next obvious trap. But by following this pattern, wouldn’t I just keep climbing higher, eliminating number after number until I somehow choose ten or even a higher number? That doesn’t make sense.

The problem was that I’m assuming everyone thinks like me. But that isn’t the case, humans are unpredictable in many cases. There are bound to be some who risk it all, going on a low number, others will hoard their coins, and a few might even act irrationally. If I want to survive, I need to stop overanalyzing the perfect number and start predicting how people actually behave.

Let’s start from scratch.

There is no point in even considering something over ten since the others have either already spent too much in the first round or still want to save their coins. The momentum is also gone, there is no reason to risk all your coins for an advantage in the second round. I could see it on the first, but doing it now just seems like a missed trend.

And even though they are possibilities, I’ll also eliminate zero and one. To me, these are more like wild cards, unpredictable, and I don’t like things that I can fully analyze and predict.

So we are down to a number between two and ten.

I’ll eliminate everything after five since I don’t see myself depositing that much, and neither do I think the lowest number is something close to it.

So there are only four numbers left.

Five is still a stretch, and keeping in mind there are still ones that gave everything the first round, I don’t even think they have five coins.

Four, it’s a good choice, but at the same time, it isn’t the best. It’s still a little too much. Though I feel like I’m getting greedy, maybe I’ll still consider it.

So now there are two left, out of these, I’ll choose three. Two is a more known number, and people tend to stick to even numbers.

So that’s it! I did it, now I only have to see if I’m a genius, or if I messed everything up. I can feel the abyss pulling my feet, waiting for me to choose wrong and lose it all.

I went to the chest and took a long breath... I deposited four golden coins.

...

[Round two has ended. And... we have a tiebreaker! The lowest number is three!]

This time, I made my own line.

This wasn’t just dumb luck or a miracle caused by my passive, it was purely myself. Earlier, I pointed out the flaw of my strategy, that I was assuming everyone was thinking like me. But now, I did the exact opposite, thinking no one thought the same way I did.

There are smart humans here, I realized that last round whenever many thought of the same strategy as I. So there had to be some that thought the same.

Though I was surprised there wasn’t anyone who picked two. Even with the fact that there are people who think like me, I only picked four to be sure, I still thought two was going to be the lowest. It was fascinating.

[The viewers have noticed something happening, and they haven’t been enjoying it. This game is meant to be played in two, but for most, one is doing all the work. So this next round, the ones who have done all the work in the previous round, will be unable to either deposit or talk to their partner. This way they can feel how it is to be useless.]

I groaned, this was going to be bad. I never liked having my life in the hands of others. And definitely not in the ones of a stranger, I felt like I was committing either the purest act of faith or the greatest act of folly. Only fate knows which.

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