Steampunk: Sixth Era Epic
Chapter 913 - 913: The Fallacy of Probability

After the first two rounds, Baron Lavende now has 1+2=3 points, Miss Witte has 3+3=6 points, and Shard has 3+4=7 points. Unless Shard has a blowout, Baron Lavende will definitely not win the championship. However, if the Baron withdraws from the match now, it means Miss Witte cannot win either. Therefore, even though victory is hopeless, Baron Lavende still stayed on very gentlemanly.

Once the three had adjusted their seating positions, Mr. Justin, the referee, loudly announced the start of the match several times before reluctantly drawing people's attention back.

"Miss Witte, come to think of it, this is also my first time playing Roder Card with a woman."

Due to the absence of one person, the remaining three exchanged seats. At this moment, Shard was sitting under the grapevine opposite to Miss Pawo, while Mr. Justin stood opposite Baron Lavende.

The Six Rings Female Sorcerer from the Truth Society had a smile on her face, as if she was truly enjoying the party here.

"Mr. Hamilton, you will find that women's math skills are no worse than men's."

The base cards were dealt in threes, and Shard did not look at his base card, directly signaling to continue dealing.

Miss Pawo's Draleon accent was particularly standard, just like her Carsonrick accent was practically suitable for being a government spokesperson.

"Speaking of which, madam, are you very skilled at mathematics?"

Shard asked, then together with the other two, went to look at his second card. Quite coincidentally, the numbers of the three were exactly the same but with different suits. Shard had Star 7, the Female Sorcerer had Flower 7, and Baron Lavende had Sun 7.

"What a coincidence."

The Baron smiled and suggested continuing to deal cards, Shard and "Miss Witte" did the same.

"It's not that I'm particularly skilled, but I've always believed that only mathematics in this world doesn't lie."

She said, Shard nodded lightly:

"Yes, I do agree with the viewpoint, but I think it's best to add certain qualifiers to phrases with 'absolute' nature, otherwise..."

He paused, interrupted by Baron Lavende's voice:

"I'm stopping."

The Baron flipped over his base card and put it together with the other two cards:

"Sun 3, Sun 7, and Sun 9, 19 points."

While speaking, he examined Shard and "Miss Witte's" third card, eagerly anticipating what the outcome of the card game would become.

The night in early winter had already made the insect chirping inaudible, the night deepened, and the glow of the gas lamp under the grapevine was so ambiguous and blurry.

Shard looked at the cards in his hand and asked:

"Miss Witte, considering the current situation, for me not having a blowout, you must come first in this round, and I must come in third, only then can you win in the finals. So, do you think your chances are high?"

The Female Sorcerer raised the corner of her mouth and said:

"I don't think you're going to blowout, that's the conclusion I came to after researching all your publicly circulated card games. Mr. Hamilton, you're very cautious and quite lucky, so there's a high probability that you won't blowout this time either."

She looked at her own and Shard's third card:

"Speaking of odds, you have Flower 7 and Flower 8, a total of 15 points. And I have Star 7 and Sun 10, totaling 17 points. I believe my odds are higher."

Although he wasn't clear about the opponent's Circle Sorcerer System, Shard believed that the Female Sorcerer in front of him was likely to have calculated the odds for both sides in the current state completely.

He shook his head:

"If you calculate too clearly while playing cards, it can actually affect your mood. Besides, I've heard this saying before, that skill cannot surpass destiny, cough, ability cannot surpass luck. Sometimes, schemes can be all thought out, but they can ultimately lead to one's own hindrance."

"No, no, mathematics doesn't lie."

They exchanged opinions, and Miss Pawo turned over her base card:

"I'm stopping."

Her cards were revealed to be Star 2, Star 7, Sun 10, totaling 19 points, just matching Baron Lavende. But the focus was not on the total points, but rather on the special card Star 2.

The card's face depicted a human male with legs spread apart, arms stretched out to the sides. Except for the heart, all other parts were phantasmified, and the heart's depiction was exceedingly detailed, probably as refined as the hand-drawn illustrations in college anatomy textbooks.

Star 2 [Human Organ: Heart], upon drawing this card, if one's total points are odd, based on the opponent's ending round total points, effects are triggered. If the opponent's total points are even, the opponent's total points are forcibly reduced by 2; if odd, they are forcibly increased by 2. It does not affect blowout points, and the effect must be triggered, only effective for opponents who have not stopped cards.

"Miss Witte at 19 points, effect triggered. Oh? Is it really this type of special card?"

Baron Lavende remarked in surprise:

"Most Roder Card special effects can be chosen not to use. But effects marked as must be triggered involve both positive and negative luck-based rules. Adding two or subtracting two?"

The appearance of such a special card finally shifted people's attention from the previous "Knight Punching the Cheater" incident.

People urged Shard to open his cards, wanting to know who "Miss Witte's" special card was more beneficial to.

But Shard shook his head:

"Continue dealing."

"Shard, your current two upcards total 15 points, so you're actually continuing to deal cards?"

Baron Lavende asked in surprise, and "Miss Witte" smiled and said:

"This shows that if he opens now, Mr. Hamilton is bound to lose. By continuing to deal, it indicates the three cards didn't blowout. This implies that Mr. Hamilton's total is definitely not 17 points or 19 points."

Baron Lavende thought for a moment before understanding:

"Oh, indeed, both the lady and I are at 19 points. And according to the special card [Human Organ: Heart] rules, 17 points becomes 19 points, 18 points becomes 16 points, 19 points becomes 21 points, 20 points becomes 18 points, 21 points becomes 22 points. Therefore, Shard can only win if the total is 17 points or 19 points!"

"Yes, unless Mr. Hamilton can't win outright or tie with me, then in the third round he will earn two points, I will earn four points. In the first two rounds, he only leads me by 1 point, so in this round he must win or tie."

Miss Witte gently nodded:

"So, the situation has become quite interesting. Can Mr. Hamilton pull off a 17 or even a 19?"

Actually, the probability of getting a 17 is extremely low because Shard's second and third cards already add up to 15 points.

The Female Sorcerer's lips curled into a smile, and Baron Lavende nervously stared at the cards under Shard's hand as people began discussing fervently.

This type of game where the points are squeezed down to only a few possibilities is truly the most intense and exciting card game. Combined with Miss Witte's simple analysis of the current situation, along with Special Cards eliminating other possibilities, such an interesting game might not even be encountered in half a year.

Shard chuckled and shook his head:

"Yes, my total points must be 17 or 19; this is indeed very interesting."

He wasn't nervous at all. Although he was very interested in the "Life Ritual: Wedding," losing wouldn't matter. Winning the Knight Punch earlier had already satisfied him, and Shard didn't hope for two consecutive wins.

The fourth card was dealt face down, but Shard didn't reveal it immediately. Instead, he flipped over his final card, Star Suit 5.

"Twenty points with three cards! With the fourth card, it's impossible to adjust to 17 or 19! Mr. Hamilton actually lost!"

Standing behind Baron Lavende, Baron Rwanda, his right hand tightly gripping the chair's back, veins bulging as if ready to burst, exclaimed excitedly.

The crowd erupted in astonishment, most expressing regret. At this point, it seemed that before requesting the fourth card, Shard was bound to lose, after all, with the first three cards totaling 20 points, achieving 17 or 19 was impossible. Continuing to request cards with three cards was because as long as the cards weren't revealed, there was no total point calculation, thus not triggering Star Suit 2 "Human Organ: Heart" rule, so no need to add two, preventing a blowout.

Miss Witte exhaled deeply, her face lighting up with a bright smile.

Shard glanced at the scattered cards on the table and shook his head slightly, looking at the final fourth card, not entirely disappointed:

"No, I actually still have a chance to win, albeit a very small chance."

"What?"

Although Shard's voice was not loud, the people discussing this card game heard it:

"That's impossible."

Baron Rwanda shook his head:

"You've missed the 17 point and 19 point opportunities. Though your deck has cards to adjust points, even adjusting will be at 20 points, there's not a single card that can change this fact."

"My fourth card hasn't been revealed yet, so there still exists hope."

Shard reached for the fourth card, and under the bright grape trellis, everyone instinctively stopped talking, eyes fixed on Shard's hand, as if Shard could really rewrite Roder Card's basic rules.

"We must believe in our Roder Card deck."

He said softly, making people respect him even more. Roder Card Players believe in their luck and cherish their decks; that's the true Card Player.

Took a deep breath, preparing to flip the last card, but suddenly withdrew his hand.

Shard turned to Tifa, smiling:

"Tifa, help me flip the card."

The black-haired Miss Maid, though surprised, nodded, and Shard explained to Mr. Justin, the referee:

"She's my lady luck."

The referee nodded, allowing such action.

So Tifa, holding Mia in one arm, flipped the final card:

"Carsonrick Horror Story: Headless Horseman Jack", Suit: Star 1.

"Oh, such a pity, 21 points. Odd number plus 2, 23 points is a blowout! Clearly again 21 points, yet still lost. Truly spectacular, truly regrettable."

Baron Lavende said with great remorse, then felt a sudden heavy pressure on his shoulder. Turning, he saw it was Baron Rwanda, eyes wide, face flushed as if his veins would explode:

"No, no!"

He seemed to have an asthma attack, struggling to breathe:

"It's Mr. Hamilton who won! Look at the rules! Oh, such a thing! Oh God, why didn't you let me participate in this final!"

He cried out loudly, and only then did people realize something was wrong. Shard signaled to Tifa, who then clearly read the card rules:

"Carsonrick Horror Story: Headless Horseman Jack, Suit: Star 1. When this card is drawn, if the opponent's first card is also Star Suit, and the number is less than or equal to 5, you can choose to forcefully reduce the opponent's total points by one."

Tifa paused a moment before continuing. Though Miss Maid's voice was light, nearly everyone held their breath, so they heard her words:

"Miss Witte's first card was that Star Suit 2 'Human Organ: Heart,' thus the effect of Star Suit 1 'Carsonrick Horror Story: Headless Horseman Jack' triggers."

"But even if the effect triggers, Miss Witte is at 18 points, still beating Shard's 21 points equal to 23 points."

Baron Lavende was still confused, as Viscount Surtr standing behind Miss Witte said with a flushed face:

"Lavende, don't you understand yet?

It's a rare rules interaction! Rule activation, calculated later. This means Carsonrick Horror Story: Headless Horseman Jack calculates first, Miss Witte's total points change from 19 to 18, not meeting the triggering condition of Star Suit 2 'Human Organ: Heart,' i.e. the holding player's total points have to be odd!"

"What?"

Baron Lavende's eyes widened, stood up, bent over to watch the stone table filled with various cards under the gas lamp. No one faulted his impoliteness, all so excited:

"That means, due to later calculation, 'Human Organ: Heart' cannot activate, Shard's card doesn't need to forcibly add 2, his points remain 21."

"And my points are 18."

The Truth Society's Female Sorcerer said softly, though she lost, she still had a graceful smile, like a true noblewoman:

"It's truly very interesting indeed."

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